Lost Lake Tribune October 24, 2010, Section A
Revival for the faithful, Obama stirs his crowd
President Obama swept into the Twin Cities on Saturday to show support for DFL gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton in a high-energy pep fest to stir the faithful and ease anxiety that his administration has lost its way.
Sporting rolled-up sleeves, Obama bounded onstage to join Dayton, bringing a message he has polished on his nationwide campaign tour: Change is hard, the battle is long, keep up the fight.
Obama vouched for Dayton, noting that the two had served together in the U.S. Senate. "I know this man," Obama said. "I know he's been fighting for the people of this state his entire career ... Now I need all of you to fight for Mark Dayton so we can keep this state moving forward. "You have a chance to defy the conventional wisdom," he said, as the crowd of more than 11,000 broke into chants of "Yes, we can!"
Much is riding on Obama's ability to re-energize Democrats in the final days of the campaign. Republicans nationally have roared forward in dozens of top races across the country, fueled by millions of dollars and a roster of insurgent candidates that could flip Congress their way.
With only 10 days before the mid-term elections, the president's swing returned him to a political safe haven where his support remains strong and polls indicate Democrats have a good chance of reclaiming the governor's office for the first time in more than two decades.
Arriving just before 3 p.m., Obama bear-hugged Dayton, who was at the airport to greet him. Hundreds of Minnesotans lined the motorcade route, and sidewalks on campus were jammed. A supporter of GOP candidate Tom Emmer had parked a sign-festooned pickup truck on the edge of the campus, flying a "Don't Tread on Me" flag.
The presidential pep rally -- along with a $600,000 fundraiser at the Van Dusen mansion in Minneapolis afterward attended by all of the Democratic members of Minnesota's congressional delegation and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- provided a surge of last-minute juice for Dayton as he slugs out a three-way race against the GOP's Emmer and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner.
At the fieldhouse, a gravel-throated Dayton called out Minnesota's Future, a GOP group that in a single day last week got a $1 million infusion from the Republican Governors Association and said more will be coming.
However, he said to cheers, "My opponents may have a million and a half dollars, but they don't have you."
Hundreds of cameras flashed, and supporters waved Dayton signs as Obama reminded voters he had reformed health care, cracked down on Wall Street and cut taxes for middle-class families.
As he does frequently, Obama compared the economy to taking over a car that veered into a ditch. As Democrats have tried to push the car out of the ditch, Republicans, he said, were "fanning themselves, sippin' on a Slurpee" and kicking dirt in their faces.
"Now we get the Republicans tapping us on the shoulder, saying 'We want the keys back,'" Obama said to cheers. "You can't have the key back -- you don't know how to drive," Obama said to hoots, hollers and hurrahs. "You can ride with us if you want, but you've got to sit in the backseat. We're going to put middle-class America in the front seat."
A smattering of protesters gathered outside the event, mostly near the fraternity houses along University Avenue.
One protester held a sign with a picture of a toilet, and the words, "Democrats flush away prosperity." Dave Rosene of Brooklyn Park, wearing an Obama baseball cap, shook his head in dismay as he walked by. "I don't think they understand the concept of taxes," he said. "They've been fed a bunch of baloney."
As a young woman held up a sign that read, "Dayton Equals Debt," Jane Graupman of St. Paul walked by, turned to her and asked, "Why do you think Dayton equals debt?" Graupman continued walking, barely waiting for an answer. "It's so easy to hold a sign," she said.
Earlier, GOP candidate Emmer brought his gospel of smaller government to a Woodbury room packed with believers who gave him a rousing reception
"They have led us to the brink of financial extinction," Emmer told the 150 people gathered at the campaign offices of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.
Afterward, Emmer told reporters that Obama's appearance for Dayton demonstrates that "he's coming in supporting a candidate who, frankly, would follow his policies."
On Saturday morning, the IP's Horner joined tailgaters for the Gophers game against Penn State at the TCF Bank Stadium, just blocks from the Obama rally.
Asked by Terri Buehler of Eden Prairie where he stood on Obama's health care plan, Horner responded, "Some of it's good, some of it's not so good."
Inside the fieldhouse, the feelings were decidedly more positive, but a little anxious. "Energy, it's definitely about energy," said Eileen Weber, vice president of the Minnesota Nurses Association. Erin McIntire, a junior at the U, said young people are restless with the pace of change. After an election, she said, "People start to feel like if they don't see the changes immediately, then maybe they're not going to happen."
Colleen Krebs, who had supported another DFLer in the gubernatorial primary, said she endured the long lines and crowds to support Dayton. "At first I thought it would be hard to support him," she said. "But I am really impressed. He's truly an honest person who is in touch with the common person and has middle-class people at heart," said Krebs, of Minneapolis.
University of Minnesota President Robert Bruininks, who met privately with Obama for a short time, called the president "a very engaging and charismatic man."
Faced with a last-minute switch from an outdoor site when the weather threatened to turn, Bruininks said that "we turned the university upside down to accommodate" the president's visit.
As Obama's large motorcade sped away from campus with lights flashing, Mikey Weitekamp and his friends got to their feet on University Avenue and cheered.
"That was so worth it -- so worth it," Weitekamp said.
Lost Lake Tribune Senior Editor, Benjamin Fugate watched the president’s motorcade enter the field house taking the route on University Avenue. Fugate was at University and 17th. He was amongst many different people including a man who was holding sign that said “Democrats Flush Down Prosperity”. The sign was in the shape of toilet with a US flag going down the toilet. Right beside Fugate was an upper middle-aged woman who said that the aforementioned sign was a lie. She expressed that rallies featuring Democrat supporters and candidates are calmer than ones with Republicans. Fugate quipped that the president should be able to stop the rain. The middle-aged woman laughed and a well-dressed middle-aged man laughed also. At about 35 MPH, the motorcade came by the Senior Editor at 3:19 PM. Fugate was not able to see the president through the tinted bulletproof windows. However, he did get a picture of the vehicle the president was in for the motorcade.
Information gained from http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/105608303.html?page=4&c=y
The Race in New Jersey is a Helmet to Helmet Event
Being named one of the dirtiest players in the NFL probably counts as an asset for Jon Runyan, as the former Philadelphia Eagles star tries to unseat a first-time congressman in one of New Jersey's closest and meanest campaigns.
The race for south Jersey's District 3 congressional seat is drawing national attention as Runyan and Democratic Rep. John Adler battle it out over issues that have little to do with creating jobs. Sure, both candidates are pledging to grow the economy, but the race of late has turned to more unusual topics.
The candidates actually have quite a few things in common -- Adler voted against the health care overhaul and backed a full extension of the Bush tax cuts -- and so quirky and nasty disputes over things like Tea Party imposters and donkey tax breaks have filled the void as the nominees try to distinguish themselves.
Tea Party politics made its way into the race after Runyan's campaign starting accusing Adler's operatives of planting a fake Tea Party candidate to siphon votes away from him in November.
That candidate, Peter DeStefano, has claimed he entered the race because the field was lacking a "true conservative." But the Courier-Post, a prominent south Jersey newspaper, recently reported that Adler's campaign manager and other Democratic strategists were behind the "Tea Party" candidate's entry.
The allegations ended up being a focal point of the candidates' Oct. 11 debate, where Adler continued to deny the claims. "I wanted to have nothing to do with it. ... As far as I know, we have nothing to do with it," Adler declared on stage.
But Runyan said Adler's not coming clean. "Obviously, he won't address the questions that you all have," he told MyFoxPhilly.com. "Quite frankly, he's basically lying to voters, trying to trick voters."
The impact of a possible spoiler candidate in the race is amplified by the fact that the contest is so close. Though Adler is leading in fundraising, a new Richard Stockton College/Zogby poll showed Runyan ahead of Adler for the first time. The survey showed Runyan with a 3-point lead; Adler has led by between 2 and 8 points in recent polls.
But Adler's not the only one with some explaining to do. Runyan earlier copped to paying his property taxes late 33 times -- on top of that, he reportedly got a tax break on a chunk of his Mount Laurel estate by putting donkeys on it and calling it farmland.
"When New Jersey families are fighting to make ends meet, Jon Runyan is trying to rip the system off," Adler's campaign said in an ad last month.
Parallel to these off-topic debates, the candidates are still trying to make the race about the classic question of change versus experience. Adler's got the experience. Though he's a first-time representative in Congress, he served in the New Jersey Senate for 17 years. Before that, he was on the Cherry Hill Town Council. Runyan is a former offensive lineman.
But as is the case with many political outsiders, Runyan's campaign casts his non-experience as an asset and Adler's incumbency as a liability. A recent ad from the Republican candidate called Adler a "career politician" and "part of the problem for 21 years."
Runyan got a boost Friday from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who told supporters "there's nothing moderate about John Adler's record" and accused the incumbent of being a reliable vote for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Information Gained from http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/23/politics-contact-sport-nj-race-adler-ex-nfl-lineman/
Editorial
Races I'll be watching and why
In the past I've actually stayed up all night watching election returns, sometimes even taking the next day off to fully digest the returns. Two of the elections of my youth were of particular interest:
• The 1960 presidential election. I was 11. Kennedy won by just 113,000 votes. Nixon won California, Kennedy Texas, and most of the South
• The 1968 presidential election. With Nixon's winning California he clinched it. While I was 19, I was not able to vote as this was before the 26th Amendment.
I won't be staying up all night this year (I'll be traveling to Charlotte on business that week), but these are the races I'll be following and why they interest me.
• The Minnesota races in which I've already voted. Predictions: Mark Dayton (DFL) for Governor, Erik Paulsen (R) for Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, Terri E. Bonoff (DFL) for Minnesota Senate District 43, and Sarah Anderson (R) Minnesota State Representative - 43A
• The other Minnesota congressional races interest me as well. Three in particular: Minnesota 8th (Prediction James Oberstar (DFL) but I sense that Chip Cravaack is closing); Minnesota 6th (Prediction Michele Bachmann (R). Interesting because of the big money in the race!
• The Owatonna school district proposal to purchase Pillsbury is also of interest. There is scant polling to indicate how this may go but I predict it will fail because of general anti-tax sentiment. "Businesses are generally supportive of the Owatonna school district’s plan to purchase the former Pillsbury Baptist College campus in the heart of Owatonna. When the Owatonna Area Chamber of Commerce and Tourism recently asked its members how they feel about the school district’s proposed acquisition of the Pillsbury College Campus, 41 percent said they favor the acquisition. In addition, 30 percent of respondents said they were still undecided about the proposal and 24 percent opposed."
Gubernatorial races of interest with predictions:
• California: Prediction: Jerry Brown (D). I'm pulling for Meg Whitman but don't see it going that way. Brown will win and California will continue to remain ungovernable (see the Race to Save California)!
• Pennsylvania: Prediction: Tom Corbett (R)
• Wisconsin: Prediction: Scott Walker (R)
• Texas: Of interest: Polls indicate and anti-incumbent sentiment. Prediction: Rick Perry (R)
• Florida: Of interest because of the ways the polls have fluctuated. Prediction: None but hoping for Rick Scott (R).
Senate races with predictions. (Comment: All are important and of interest but I highlight a handful)
• Nevada: Prediction: Reid defeated! Yeah!!! (Republican pickup)
• Illinois: Prediction: Kirk (Republican pickup)
• Kentucky: Prediction: Rand Paul (R)
• Florida: Prediction: Marco Rubio (R). Interesting because looks like Crist is not a factor.
• Wisconin: Prediction: Feingold defeated (Republican pickup)
• Alaska: Prediction: Joe Miller (R). Interesting because of the Murkowski write-in campaign. I don't think results will be known for several days or more! If Murkowski and Miller split, Scott McAdams could win and it would be a Democrat pickup.
• Pennsylvania: Prediction: very close. Polls are closing. I'm hoping for a Republican pickup here
• California: Prediction: Carly Fiorina won't win but a Boxer defeat would be huge!
• West Virginia: Prediction: Unclear but the polls are very close. A Republican win would be a pickup.
• Arkansas: Prediction: Republican pickup
• Senate balance after elections: 52 Democrats / 48 Republicans. Pickups in California, Washington state, and West Virginia would be huge and tip the balance for the Republicans.
House of Representatives:
• Ohio will be very interesting to watch (also for the Senate race and Gubernatorial). See Two More Ohio Races to Watch and 2010 Congressional races: "a strategy of triage"
• The Democrat Blue Dogs who vote for Obamacare are all at risk. See my earlier blog post about these races.
• The Republicans winning the house and Nancy Pelosi being out as Speaker (3rd in presidential line of succession) would be huge and welcome news!
• Balance after elections: Perhaps 225-210 to as high as 230 to 205.
Way out on the line for 2012:
• I think that the Republican ticket could be Mitt Romney (for President) paired with Tim Pawlenty. Evangelicals are skeptical of Mitt because of his Mormon faith. Pawlenty has strong Evangelical credentials and could balance "the faith" of the ticket and placate the social conservatives (who are largely Evangelical Christians). Both Romney and Pawlenty are well-qualified to have the highest office!
• I personally think that Sarah Palin would be a disastrous pick for the Presidential ticket!
• I think that it is probable that President Obama will be a one-term President.
Lost Lake Tribune Political Editor, James Peet, authored this Editorial. You can read his blog at http://coldfusion-guy.blogspot.com
This article was copied from http://coldfusion-guy.blogspot.com/2010/10/races-ill-be-watching-and-why.html
President Obama swept into the Twin Cities on Saturday to show support for DFL gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton in a high-energy pep fest to stir the faithful and ease anxiety that his administration has lost its way.
Sporting rolled-up sleeves, Obama bounded onstage to join Dayton, bringing a message he has polished on his nationwide campaign tour: Change is hard, the battle is long, keep up the fight.
Obama vouched for Dayton, noting that the two had served together in the U.S. Senate. "I know this man," Obama said. "I know he's been fighting for the people of this state his entire career ... Now I need all of you to fight for Mark Dayton so we can keep this state moving forward. "You have a chance to defy the conventional wisdom," he said, as the crowd of more than 11,000 broke into chants of "Yes, we can!"
Much is riding on Obama's ability to re-energize Democrats in the final days of the campaign. Republicans nationally have roared forward in dozens of top races across the country, fueled by millions of dollars and a roster of insurgent candidates that could flip Congress their way.
With only 10 days before the mid-term elections, the president's swing returned him to a political safe haven where his support remains strong and polls indicate Democrats have a good chance of reclaiming the governor's office for the first time in more than two decades.
Arriving just before 3 p.m., Obama bear-hugged Dayton, who was at the airport to greet him. Hundreds of Minnesotans lined the motorcade route, and sidewalks on campus were jammed. A supporter of GOP candidate Tom Emmer had parked a sign-festooned pickup truck on the edge of the campus, flying a "Don't Tread on Me" flag.
The presidential pep rally -- along with a $600,000 fundraiser at the Van Dusen mansion in Minneapolis afterward attended by all of the Democratic members of Minnesota's congressional delegation and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi -- provided a surge of last-minute juice for Dayton as he slugs out a three-way race against the GOP's Emmer and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner.
At the fieldhouse, a gravel-throated Dayton called out Minnesota's Future, a GOP group that in a single day last week got a $1 million infusion from the Republican Governors Association and said more will be coming.
However, he said to cheers, "My opponents may have a million and a half dollars, but they don't have you."
Hundreds of cameras flashed, and supporters waved Dayton signs as Obama reminded voters he had reformed health care, cracked down on Wall Street and cut taxes for middle-class families.
As he does frequently, Obama compared the economy to taking over a car that veered into a ditch. As Democrats have tried to push the car out of the ditch, Republicans, he said, were "fanning themselves, sippin' on a Slurpee" and kicking dirt in their faces.
"Now we get the Republicans tapping us on the shoulder, saying 'We want the keys back,'" Obama said to cheers. "You can't have the key back -- you don't know how to drive," Obama said to hoots, hollers and hurrahs. "You can ride with us if you want, but you've got to sit in the backseat. We're going to put middle-class America in the front seat."
A smattering of protesters gathered outside the event, mostly near the fraternity houses along University Avenue.
One protester held a sign with a picture of a toilet, and the words, "Democrats flush away prosperity." Dave Rosene of Brooklyn Park, wearing an Obama baseball cap, shook his head in dismay as he walked by. "I don't think they understand the concept of taxes," he said. "They've been fed a bunch of baloney."
As a young woman held up a sign that read, "Dayton Equals Debt," Jane Graupman of St. Paul walked by, turned to her and asked, "Why do you think Dayton equals debt?" Graupman continued walking, barely waiting for an answer. "It's so easy to hold a sign," she said.
Earlier, GOP candidate Emmer brought his gospel of smaller government to a Woodbury room packed with believers who gave him a rousing reception
"They have led us to the brink of financial extinction," Emmer told the 150 people gathered at the campaign offices of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.
Afterward, Emmer told reporters that Obama's appearance for Dayton demonstrates that "he's coming in supporting a candidate who, frankly, would follow his policies."
On Saturday morning, the IP's Horner joined tailgaters for the Gophers game against Penn State at the TCF Bank Stadium, just blocks from the Obama rally.
Asked by Terri Buehler of Eden Prairie where he stood on Obama's health care plan, Horner responded, "Some of it's good, some of it's not so good."
Inside the fieldhouse, the feelings were decidedly more positive, but a little anxious. "Energy, it's definitely about energy," said Eileen Weber, vice president of the Minnesota Nurses Association. Erin McIntire, a junior at the U, said young people are restless with the pace of change. After an election, she said, "People start to feel like if they don't see the changes immediately, then maybe they're not going to happen."
Colleen Krebs, who had supported another DFLer in the gubernatorial primary, said she endured the long lines and crowds to support Dayton. "At first I thought it would be hard to support him," she said. "But I am really impressed. He's truly an honest person who is in touch with the common person and has middle-class people at heart," said Krebs, of Minneapolis.
University of Minnesota President Robert Bruininks, who met privately with Obama for a short time, called the president "a very engaging and charismatic man."
Faced with a last-minute switch from an outdoor site when the weather threatened to turn, Bruininks said that "we turned the university upside down to accommodate" the president's visit.
As Obama's large motorcade sped away from campus with lights flashing, Mikey Weitekamp and his friends got to their feet on University Avenue and cheered.
"That was so worth it -- so worth it," Weitekamp said.
Lost Lake Tribune Senior Editor, Benjamin Fugate watched the president’s motorcade enter the field house taking the route on University Avenue. Fugate was at University and 17th. He was amongst many different people including a man who was holding sign that said “Democrats Flush Down Prosperity”. The sign was in the shape of toilet with a US flag going down the toilet. Right beside Fugate was an upper middle-aged woman who said that the aforementioned sign was a lie. She expressed that rallies featuring Democrat supporters and candidates are calmer than ones with Republicans. Fugate quipped that the president should be able to stop the rain. The middle-aged woman laughed and a well-dressed middle-aged man laughed also. At about 35 MPH, the motorcade came by the Senior Editor at 3:19 PM. Fugate was not able to see the president through the tinted bulletproof windows. However, he did get a picture of the vehicle the president was in for the motorcade.
Information gained from http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/105608303.html?page=4&c=y
The Race in New Jersey is a Helmet to Helmet Event
Being named one of the dirtiest players in the NFL probably counts as an asset for Jon Runyan, as the former Philadelphia Eagles star tries to unseat a first-time congressman in one of New Jersey's closest and meanest campaigns.
The race for south Jersey's District 3 congressional seat is drawing national attention as Runyan and Democratic Rep. John Adler battle it out over issues that have little to do with creating jobs. Sure, both candidates are pledging to grow the economy, but the race of late has turned to more unusual topics.
The candidates actually have quite a few things in common -- Adler voted against the health care overhaul and backed a full extension of the Bush tax cuts -- and so quirky and nasty disputes over things like Tea Party imposters and donkey tax breaks have filled the void as the nominees try to distinguish themselves.
Tea Party politics made its way into the race after Runyan's campaign starting accusing Adler's operatives of planting a fake Tea Party candidate to siphon votes away from him in November.
That candidate, Peter DeStefano, has claimed he entered the race because the field was lacking a "true conservative." But the Courier-Post, a prominent south Jersey newspaper, recently reported that Adler's campaign manager and other Democratic strategists were behind the "Tea Party" candidate's entry.
The allegations ended up being a focal point of the candidates' Oct. 11 debate, where Adler continued to deny the claims. "I wanted to have nothing to do with it. ... As far as I know, we have nothing to do with it," Adler declared on stage.
But Runyan said Adler's not coming clean. "Obviously, he won't address the questions that you all have," he told MyFoxPhilly.com. "Quite frankly, he's basically lying to voters, trying to trick voters."
The impact of a possible spoiler candidate in the race is amplified by the fact that the contest is so close. Though Adler is leading in fundraising, a new Richard Stockton College/Zogby poll showed Runyan ahead of Adler for the first time. The survey showed Runyan with a 3-point lead; Adler has led by between 2 and 8 points in recent polls.
But Adler's not the only one with some explaining to do. Runyan earlier copped to paying his property taxes late 33 times -- on top of that, he reportedly got a tax break on a chunk of his Mount Laurel estate by putting donkeys on it and calling it farmland.
"When New Jersey families are fighting to make ends meet, Jon Runyan is trying to rip the system off," Adler's campaign said in an ad last month.
Parallel to these off-topic debates, the candidates are still trying to make the race about the classic question of change versus experience. Adler's got the experience. Though he's a first-time representative in Congress, he served in the New Jersey Senate for 17 years. Before that, he was on the Cherry Hill Town Council. Runyan is a former offensive lineman.
But as is the case with many political outsiders, Runyan's campaign casts his non-experience as an asset and Adler's incumbency as a liability. A recent ad from the Republican candidate called Adler a "career politician" and "part of the problem for 21 years."
Runyan got a boost Friday from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who told supporters "there's nothing moderate about John Adler's record" and accused the incumbent of being a reliable vote for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Information Gained from http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/10/23/politics-contact-sport-nj-race-adler-ex-nfl-lineman/
Editorial
Races I'll be watching and why
In the past I've actually stayed up all night watching election returns, sometimes even taking the next day off to fully digest the returns. Two of the elections of my youth were of particular interest:
• The 1960 presidential election. I was 11. Kennedy won by just 113,000 votes. Nixon won California, Kennedy Texas, and most of the South
• The 1968 presidential election. With Nixon's winning California he clinched it. While I was 19, I was not able to vote as this was before the 26th Amendment.
I won't be staying up all night this year (I'll be traveling to Charlotte on business that week), but these are the races I'll be following and why they interest me.
• The Minnesota races in which I've already voted. Predictions: Mark Dayton (DFL) for Governor, Erik Paulsen (R) for Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, Terri E. Bonoff (DFL) for Minnesota Senate District 43, and Sarah Anderson (R) Minnesota State Representative - 43A
• The other Minnesota congressional races interest me as well. Three in particular: Minnesota 8th (Prediction James Oberstar (DFL) but I sense that Chip Cravaack is closing); Minnesota 6th (Prediction Michele Bachmann (R). Interesting because of the big money in the race!
• The Owatonna school district proposal to purchase Pillsbury is also of interest. There is scant polling to indicate how this may go but I predict it will fail because of general anti-tax sentiment. "Businesses are generally supportive of the Owatonna school district’s plan to purchase the former Pillsbury Baptist College campus in the heart of Owatonna. When the Owatonna Area Chamber of Commerce and Tourism recently asked its members how they feel about the school district’s proposed acquisition of the Pillsbury College Campus, 41 percent said they favor the acquisition. In addition, 30 percent of respondents said they were still undecided about the proposal and 24 percent opposed."
Gubernatorial races of interest with predictions:
• California: Prediction: Jerry Brown (D). I'm pulling for Meg Whitman but don't see it going that way. Brown will win and California will continue to remain ungovernable (see the Race to Save California)!
• Pennsylvania: Prediction: Tom Corbett (R)
• Wisconsin: Prediction: Scott Walker (R)
• Texas: Of interest: Polls indicate and anti-incumbent sentiment. Prediction: Rick Perry (R)
• Florida: Of interest because of the ways the polls have fluctuated. Prediction: None but hoping for Rick Scott (R).
Senate races with predictions. (Comment: All are important and of interest but I highlight a handful)
• Nevada: Prediction: Reid defeated! Yeah!!! (Republican pickup)
• Illinois: Prediction: Kirk (Republican pickup)
• Kentucky: Prediction: Rand Paul (R)
• Florida: Prediction: Marco Rubio (R). Interesting because looks like Crist is not a factor.
• Wisconin: Prediction: Feingold defeated (Republican pickup)
• Alaska: Prediction: Joe Miller (R). Interesting because of the Murkowski write-in campaign. I don't think results will be known for several days or more! If Murkowski and Miller split, Scott McAdams could win and it would be a Democrat pickup.
• Pennsylvania: Prediction: very close. Polls are closing. I'm hoping for a Republican pickup here
• California: Prediction: Carly Fiorina won't win but a Boxer defeat would be huge!
• West Virginia: Prediction: Unclear but the polls are very close. A Republican win would be a pickup.
• Arkansas: Prediction: Republican pickup
• Senate balance after elections: 52 Democrats / 48 Republicans. Pickups in California, Washington state, and West Virginia would be huge and tip the balance for the Republicans.
House of Representatives:
• Ohio will be very interesting to watch (also for the Senate race and Gubernatorial). See Two More Ohio Races to Watch and 2010 Congressional races: "a strategy of triage"
• The Democrat Blue Dogs who vote for Obamacare are all at risk. See my earlier blog post about these races.
• The Republicans winning the house and Nancy Pelosi being out as Speaker (3rd in presidential line of succession) would be huge and welcome news!
• Balance after elections: Perhaps 225-210 to as high as 230 to 205.
Way out on the line for 2012:
• I think that the Republican ticket could be Mitt Romney (for President) paired with Tim Pawlenty. Evangelicals are skeptical of Mitt because of his Mormon faith. Pawlenty has strong Evangelical credentials and could balance "the faith" of the ticket and placate the social conservatives (who are largely Evangelical Christians). Both Romney and Pawlenty are well-qualified to have the highest office!
• I personally think that Sarah Palin would be a disastrous pick for the Presidential ticket!
• I think that it is probable that President Obama will be a one-term President.
Lost Lake Tribune Political Editor, James Peet, authored this Editorial. You can read his blog at http://coldfusion-guy.blogspot.com
This article was copied from http://coldfusion-guy.blogspot.com/2010/10/races-ill-be-watching-and-why.html
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